Investment Memo

This post documents my investment records and the lessons I've learned along the way.

2024: I believe the next wave of technological breakthroughs will occur in hardware, facilitating enhanced interaction between humans and AI/large language models (LLMs). This includes, but is not limited to, wearable smart devices, autonomous vehicles, and robotics. With this perspective, I am bullish on stocks like Meta and TSLA. Additionally, I am speculating on cryptocurrencies, which may benefit from anticipated interest rate cuts. This year presents numerous risks, including geopolitical tensions (such as the conflicts in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine), the upcoming U.S. presidential election, and advancements in AI/LLM development and applications. What an exciting year!

2023: I began reading books about stock investment, starting with The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham. This book taught me techniques for identifying undervalued stocks. I then built a web app to calculate various valuation indicators and randomly selected several undervalued stocks, including LEN, COIN, BZUN, and DISH. LEN and COIN turned out to be excellent investments, yielding returns between 2x and 6x. However, I incurred losses with BZUN and DISH. Lesson learned: Identifying undervalued stocks is not sufficient; it’s essential to understand the reasons behind their undervaluation, as well as the future prospects of their industry and business.

2022: I shared with my husband that I believed chips would become the "gold" of the future, as I foresaw that ML/AI technology would expand across all industries. While I didn't anticipate the breakthrough of large language models (LLMs), my faith in the semiconductor sector proved correct. I purchased 300 shares of NVDA at an average cost of $200 in 2022. Unfortunately, that year was marked by a bear market, largely due to interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The price of NVDA fell to as low as $120, prompting me to sell my shares. As of October 2024, NVDA is approximately $1,200. Lesson learned: Hold on to your belief, especially when you own stocks rather than options.

2021: The stock market experienced a significant surge due to quantitative easing (QE) policies implemented in response to the pandemic. I achieved decent returns from investing in NIO (stocks) and SE (leap options). However, upon reflection, it was quite risky since I was betting that the market would continue to rise, a trend that only lasted a few months before it declined. Lesson learned: Don't chase a hot market, hoping that its upward trajectory will persist.

2020: I found myself following the crowd without conducting my own research. This led me to engage in risky financial derivatives, such as short-term options. I invested in NIO, TSLA, UVXY, WORK, ADBE, and PBR, but ultimately did not see significant profits. Lesson learned: Secondary level thinking and always do your research!

2019: This was the year I began my journey in the stock market.